时间:2012-04-29 22:44:10
三、阅读理解（每题3分，共30分）
（一）3548
Demand forecasting is the process of estimating the future numbers of people required and the likely skills and competences they will need. The ideal basis of the forecast is an annual budget and longer-term business plan, translated into activity levels for each function and department or decisions on ‘downsizing’, in a manufacturing company the sales budget is translated into a manufacturing plan giving the numbers and types of products to be made in each period. From this information the number of hours to be worked by each skill category to make the quota for each period can be computed.
The demand forecasting techniques that can be used to produce quantitative estimates of future requirements are described below.
This is the most typical method of forecasting. It simply requires managers or specialists to sit down, think about future workloads, and decide how many people are needed. This can be no more than guesswork unless there is reliable evidence available of forecast increases in activity levels or new demands for skills.
This is carried out by studying past ratios between, say, the number of direct (production) workers and indirect (support) workers in a manufacturing plant, and forecasting future ratios, having made some allowance for changes in organization or methods.
Work study techniques can be used when it is possible to apply work measurement to calculate how long operations should take and the number of people required. Work study techniques for direct workers can be combined with ratio-trend analysis to calculate the number of indirect workers needed.
Forecasting skill requirements is largely a matter of managerial judgement. This judgement should, however, be exercised on the basis of a careful analysis of the impact of projected product-market developments and the introduction of new technology, either information technology of computerized manufacturing.
1. Demand forecasting is the process of estimating the following except
.
A. the future numbers of people required
B. the likely skills people will need
C. the likely competences people will need
D. the future numbers and types of products
2.Which of the following about demand forcasting in a manufacturing company is false? .
A. The ideal basis of the forecast is an annual budget and longer-term business plan.
B. The forecast can’t be based on decisions on ‘downsizing’.
C. The sales budget should be translated into a manufacturing plan.
D. The number of hours to be worked by each skill category to make the quota for each period can be computed.
3. Which of the following demand forecasting techniques can’t be used to produce quantitative estimates of future requirements? .
A. Managerial or expert judgement
B. Ratio-trend analysis
C. Critical incident method
D. Work study techniques
4. The author of this passage might disagree that .
A. Managerial or expert judgement can be a guesswork if there is reliable evidence available of forecast increases in activity levels or new demands for skills.
B. When ratio-trend analysis is b